As we’re a few days before Memorial Day this is a good time for a little benchmark. As we’re approaching the third mark of this season some teams like underachieving ones such as The Guardians, Mets and all those teams are forming an idea of what kinda squad they have and building their expectations around it and obviously It’s clear the Rays, Dodgers and Braves are awesome and the Royals and A’s fucking suck which results in managers getting fired. It obviously can happen before this. Cal Ripken Sr for instance got fired after the 1988 Orioles started 0-6. They wound up starting the season 0-21 so I don’t how much of it was poor Cal Sr’s fault but he was the first scapegoat. Another early firing was Yogi Berra on the 1985 Yankees. He was given a promise by George Steinbrenner before the season that he’d get a full year no matter what. The Yankees started off 6-10 and Yogi was gone. He was so pissed, he refused to come back to Yankee Stadium for 15 years.
Every manager in 2023 managed to escape a super early firing this year but now we are in a zone where teams can start getting that axe sharpened. I will say that we’ve seen a major shift in the game as far as managers not getting fired mid-season as much. In 1991, eight managers got fired during the season. In 2021, not a single one did. But the Blue Jays and Phillies both made mid-season managerial changes and both teams make the playoffs. Could that lead to a change to more managers getting the boot this year? Here are the managers I think are most likely to get fired.
John Schneider, Toronto Blue Jays
Predicted DateTo Be Canne: June23rd
Honestly, this could happen any day. He’s in some really big trouble. If the hot seat wasn’t warm enough, tell me it won’t be boiling after this stretch: @Twins, Brewers, @Mets, Astros, Twins, @Orioles, and @Rangers. That’s a terrifying stretch. Everything is going against Schneider. They have high expectations and play in the toughest division in baseball (all of sports?). He’s the one guy on this list that could be fired tomorrow and it shouldn’t shock anyone.
David Bell, Cincinnati Reds
Predicted DateTo Be Canne: June 28th
It looks like the teams most likely to fire managers are teams that are expected to be competitive and fall short. I do not expect to see Terry Francona, Buck Showalter or Bob Melvin getting fired during the season. They’ve earned too much respect and their long career can speak for itself and what’s going on with Bell is a little bit different because the Reds were supposed to be bad, and they still are with 22-29 but they could have been in a harder position.
The upcoming schedule can benefit them. In just the next 30 days, they have a series against Milwaukee, Boston, Dodgers, Orioles, Braves, and Astros. This is a Reds team that lost 100 games last year while we are seeing guys like Hunter Greene starting to level up, I am not sure it’s enough to save Bell. His contract is up at the end of the season. Would it shock anyone if the horseshit Reds ownership tries to use him as a scapegoat?
Oli Marmol, St. Louis Cardinals
Predicted DateTo Be Canned: July 11th
As far as the Cardinals and the Steelers, they’re pretty much similar since they both show stability and consistency whether it be Mike Matheny, Herzog, Tony LaRussa, or Red Schoedienst, Cardinal managers typically get more frame of time even though it might change after they surprisingly fired Mike Shildt after the 2021 season. They gave rookie manager Marmol the shot and the Cards did fine last year. They did win 92 games but also failed to win a playoff game.
It’s been a wild shitshow this year in St. Louis. They started 10-24 and go back and forth each week if they want Willson Contreras to catch. They had highly touted prospect Jordan Walker called up for the month of April until they realized he can’t play defense. They have been playing better of late but still sit at 23-30. They are fortunate to play in the abysmal NL Central but is there any way Marmol can survive another losing stretch? They’ve lost 3 of the last 5…
Rob Thomson, Philadelphia Phillies
Predicted DateTo Be Canne: August 15th
Thomson seems to be able to save himself pretty easily. They go on a decent run and get above .500 and I think he’ll be OK. Bryce Harper is back and his schedule isn’t impossible. He also did bring his team to the World Series last year so he’ll manage the All-Star Game. But can you tell me if the Phillies are sitting at 50-55, people aren’t going to start getting really frustrated as the playoffs become more and more out of reach? He’s the least likely guy on this list to get the axe during the season but none of these guys are safe. They could each be an 8 game losing streak from carrying out their belongings in a cardboard box.
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